Purpose:  To learn about the past and present global atmospheric concentrations of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and to learn how to estimate future CO2 concentrations. 

 

data from: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html#mlo_full

Fig. 1.  Click to enlarge and read values from graph.  Assume that Global averages are approximately the same as values for Mauna Loa.  Also, remember that ppm is the abbreviation for parts per million.

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  Here is the question sheet for printing  CO2Assignment(pdf_117k)

  You will have to run the global pollution model to answer some of the questions.       To RUN Model Window      To Scenarios          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial concentration, Co(ppm)       Life-time(yrs)   

Initial Emissions, So,(ppm/yr)            Emission Growth rate, R,(%)   

Rateof Conc. Chnge (ppm/yr) = S - C/(Life-time)   (Eq 1)        

Back to Questions     To Scenaros and DT estimates 

 

 

 

 

 

Back to Questions

 

Scenarios: The graph below shows the future concentrations of CO2 for six different emission scenarios.  Scenarios A, B, C, D, E, and F all correspond to a 1% growth in CO2 emissions from 1958 to 2000 giving a good fit to observations for this time interval.  Different emission source growth rates are used for each scenario after the year 2000.  Select the scenario which best fits your modeled results for estimates of future CO2 concentrations from 2000 to 2060.  Next click on the scenario button below to see the current climate model estimates for the range in future temperature changes for that particular scenario.  These estimates are based on the upwelling diffusion model of MacKay and Ko (1997) which has been calibrated to match the response of  coupled atmosphere ocean climate models discussed in Chapter 9 of the third assessment report of the IPCC; Climate Change 2001: The Scientific basis, Cambridge University press.

A B C D E F  Back to Questions

Scenario A.  The graph below gives the high low and average estimates of mean surface air temperature change simulated by current coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models assuming a 1% growth in CO2 emissions from 1958 to 2000 (giving a good fit to observations for this time interval) and then an emission source growth rate of 2% after the year 2000.  Back to Scenarios.

 

Scenario B.  The graph below gives the high low and average estimates of mean surface air temperature change simulated by current coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models assuming a 1% growth in CO2 emissions from 1958 to 2000 (giving a good fit to observations for this time interval) and then an emission source growth rate of 1.5% after the year 2000.  Back to Scenarios.

Scenario C.  The graph below gives the high low and average estimates of mean surface air temperature change simulated by current coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models assuming a 1% growth in CO2 emissions from 1958 to 2000 ( giving a good fit to observations for this time interval) and then an emission source growth rate of 1.0% after the year 2000.  This scenario maintains the same economic expansion rate as that which existed from 1960 to 2000. Back to Scenarios.

Scenario D.  The graph below gives the high low and average estimates of mean surface air temperature change simulated by current coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models assuming a 1% growth in CO2 emissions from 1958 to 2000 ( giving a good fit to observations for this time interval) and then an emission source growth rate of 0.5% after the year 2000.  Back to Scenarios.

Scenario E.  The graph below gives the high low and average estimates of mean surface air temperature change simulated by current coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models assuming a 1% growth in CO2 emissions from 1958 to 2000 ( giving a good fit to observations for this time interval) and then an emission source growth rate of 0.0% after the year 2000.   This scenario  keeps the emissions (# of polluting sources) constant at their 2000 levels. Back to Scenarios.

Scenario F.  The graph below gives the high low and average estimates of mean surface air temperature change simulated by current coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models assuming a 1% growth in CO2 emissions from 1958 to 2000 ( giving a good fit to observations for this time interval) and then an emission source growth rate of -0.5% after the year 2000.  This scenario corresponds to closing factories world-wide and reducing total emissions from cars.  Back to Scenarios.

 

References

MacKay, R.M., M.K.W. Ko Normal modes and the transient response of the climate system, 1997. Geophys. Res. Letts., 24,5,559-562.

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.

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